Publication
Title
Can higher employment levels bring down relative income poverty in the EU? Regression-based simulations of the Europe 2020 target
Author
Abstract
At the European level and in most EU member states, higher employment levels are seen as key to better poverty outcomes. What can we expect the actual impact to be, however? Up until now shift-share analysis has been used to estimate the impact of rising employment on relative income poverty. This method has serious limitations. We propose a more sophisticated simulation model that builds on regression-based estimates of employment probabilities and wages. We use this model to estimate the impact on relative income poverty of moving towards the Europe 2020 target of 75 percent of the working-age population in work. Two sensitivity checks are included: giving priority in job allocation to jobless households and imputing low instead of estimated wages. This article shows that employment growth does not necessarily result in lower relative poverty shares, a result that is largely consistent with observed outcomes over the past decade.
Language
English
Source (journal)
Journal of European social policy. - Harlow, 1991, currens
Publication
Harlow : 2012
ISSN
0958-9287 [print]
1461-7269 [online]
Volume/pages
22:5(2012), p. 472-486
ISI
000312726100002
Full text (Publishers DOI)
Full text (publishers version - intranet only)
UAntwerpen
Faculty/Department
Research group
Publication type
Subject
Law 
Affiliation
Publications with a UAntwerp address
External links
Web of Science
Record
Identification
Creation 31.01.2013
Last edited 26.04.2017
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