Publication
Title
Predictive model for late atrial arrhythmia after closure of an atrial septal defect
Author
Abstract
Objectives: To develop a quantitative event-free prediction model of late atrial arrhythmia after atrial septal defect (ASD) repair. Background: The clinical management of ASD is driven by risk factors that determine the occurrence of late atrial arrhythmia. Methods: Data from ASD type secundum patients, included in the Belgian Congenital Heart Disease Registry, were analyzed. Based on review of the literature, age at repair, gender, pulmonary hypertension, atrial arrhythmia before and within one month after repair were included in the model. Using Cox-regression analysis, a weighted risk score was derived, which was validated using the Brier score. Results: A total of 155 patients (117 women; median age at follow-up 53.9 years, range 18.0-78.8) having 349 follow-up years was included. Thirty-nine patients (25.2%) presented with late atrial arrhythmia. Multivariate analysis showed that a mPAP >= 25 mmHg (HR 4.39; 95%CI 2.17-9.09; P<0.0001), the presence of atrial arrhythmia before (HR 3.52; 95%CI 1.75-7.14; P=0.002) and <= 1 month after repair (HR 6.62; 95%CI 2.38-20.00; P<0.0001) and gender (HR 2.18 95%CI 1.11-4.35) were associated with late atrial arrhythmia. A risk score (0 to 28 points) to predict atrial arrhythmia free survival was derived for follow-up times ranging from one to 5 years. Mean Brier score for the model was 0.10. Conclusions: We formulated a well validated risk model to predict arrhythmia-free survival in ASD patients undergoing ASD repair. Further research is needed whether this model can be used for individual clinical risk stratification and whether the model can be adapted for application in other congenital heart defects. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
Language
English
Source (journal)
International journal of cardiology. - Amsterdam, 1981, currens
Publication
Amsterdam : 2013
ISSN
0167-5273
Volume/pages
164:3(2013), p. 318-322
ISI
000316599700018
Full text (Publishers DOI)
Full text (publishers version - intranet only)
UAntwerpen
Faculty/Department
Research group
Publication type
Subject
Affiliation
Publications with a UAntwerp address
External links
Web of Science
Record
Identification
Creation 05.06.2013
Last edited 09.05.2017
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