Publication
Title
Long term implications of drug policy shifts : anticipating and non-anticipating consumers
Author
Abstract
We consider a semi-rational addiction model in which the user has perfect foresight over all things within the user's control, but not necessarily with respect to exogenous parameter shocks, e.g., those stemming from changes in national policy. We show that addictive substances are more likely to have state-dependent solution trajectories, and that in turn can create path dependence at the macro-policy level; in particular, legalization may be an irreversible experiment. Also, in this model, shifting from a nuanced policy that differentiates between high and low intensity users, to a tougher one where the government makes life hard for every user reduces initiation considerably. However, it also may have perverse effects. In particular, we show that making the policy tougher in this way could drive some people from a "happy" stable saddle point equilibrium with moderate consumption into increasing rather than reducing their consumption and addiction stock. So implementing zero tolerance policies may increase rather than reduce aggregate drug use, depending on the population's distribution of parameter values and initial consumption stocks. Further, we consider the impact of announcing a policy change. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Language
English
Source (journal)
Annual reviews in control. - Oxford
Publication
Oxford : Pergamon press, 2013
ISSN
1367-5788
Volume/pages
37:1(2013), p. 105-115
ISI
000320477200007
Full text (Publishers DOI)
Full text (publishers version - intranet only)
UAntwerpen
Faculty/Department
Research group
Publication type
Subject
Affiliation
Publications with a UAntwerp address
External links
Web of Science
Record
Identification
Creation 04.09.2013
Last edited 04.05.2017
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