A univariate analysis : short-term forecasts of container throughput in the port of Antwerp
Faculty of Applied Economics
Antwerp :University of Antwerp, 2013
Research paper / University of Antwerp, Faculty of Applied Economics ; 2013:022
University of Antwerp
The relation between transportation and economic activity is complex and interrelated. From this complexity arises the difficulty of forecasting the port throughput, which plays an essential part in planning the port operations, not only for the port stakeholders but also for the development of hinterland activities and connectivity network. The aim of the univariate method used in this paper is to estimate short-term forecasting and to provide initial insight of the stochastic process for further research in the multiple regression analyses. The SARIMA model is found to be quite appropriate for the container throughput since seasonality exists in the time series. The advantage of the univariate method is that it is independent of other variables, provide a generic and a simple model that can be updated frequently and the model can be applied to other ports. Keywords: Container throughput; Univariate analysis; ARIMA; Forecasting; Seasonality.