Publication
Title
Peak oil supply or oil not for sale?
Author
Abstract
The restrictions imposed by climate change are inevitable and will be exerted either via precautionary mitigation of (mainly energy-related) CO2 emissions or via irreversible impacts on ecosystems and on human habitats. Either way, oil markets are bound to incur drastic shrinking. Concern over peak oil supply will crumble when the irrevocable peak oil demand is created. Replacing oil in the worlds energy economies requires redirected market forces, notably in the form of steadily increasing oil end-use prices. Yet, thus far, crude oil prices have obeyed the market fundamentals of expanding-contracting demand and oligopolistic supply. A hockey stick supply curve supports high sales prices, providing large rents to submarginal sources. Cutting oil demand and maintaining high prices implies reducing the supply hockey sticks length by curtailing some oil producers. In such a scenario, the alliances, goals, and tactics of oil geopolitics are set to change. We identify a distribution over friendly and hostile oil suppliers, with others drifting in between the two sides. Conflicts and warfare are less aimed at conquering oil fields for exploitation than at paralyzing production capabilities of opponents or of unreliable transient sources. Covert warfare and instigation of internal conflicts are likely tactics to exhaust hostile opponents.
Language
English
Source (journal)
Futures: the journal of forecasting, planning and policy. - Amsterdam
Publication
Amsterdam : 2013
ISSN
0016-3287
Volume/pages
53(2013), p. 74-85
ISI
000327572700008
Full text (Publisher's DOI)
Full text (publisher's version - intranet only)
UAntwerpen
Faculty/Department
Research group
Publication type
Subject
Law 
Affiliation
Publications with a UAntwerp address
External links
Web of Science
Record
Identification
Creation 08.11.2013
Last edited 16.11.2017
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