Publication
Title
A GLUE uncertainty analysis of a drying model of pharmaceutical granules
Author
Abstract
A shift from batch processing towards continuous processing is of interest in the pharmaceutical industry. However, this transition requires detailed knowledge and process understanding of all consecutive unit operations in a continuous manufacturing line to design adequate control strategies. This can be facilitated by developing mechanistic models of the multi-phase systems in the process. Since modelling efforts only started recently in this field, uncertainties about the model predictions are generally neglected. However, model predictions have an inherent uncertainty (i.e. prediction uncertainty) originating from uncertainty in input data, model parameters, model structure, boundary conditions and software. In this paper, the model prediction uncertainty is evaluated for a model describing the continuous drying of single pharmaceutical wet granules in a six-segmented fluidized bed drying unit, which is part of the full continuous from-powder-to-tablet manufacturing line (Consigma (TM), GEA Pharma Systems). A validated model describing the drying behaviour of a single pharmaceutical granule in two consecutive phases is used. First of all, the effect of the assumptions at the particle level on the prediction uncertainty is assessed. Secondly, the paper focuses on the influence of the most sensitive parameters in the model. Finally, a combined analysis (particle level plus most sensitive parameters) is performed and discussed. To propagate the uncertainty originating from the parameter uncertainty to the model output, the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) method is used. This method enables a modeller to incorporate the information obtained from the experimental data in the assessment of the uncertain model predictions and to find a balance between model performance and data precision. A detailed evaluation of the obtained uncertainty analysis results is made with respect to the model structure, interactions between parameters and uncertainty boundaries. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Language
English
Source (journal)
European journal of pharmaceutics and biopharmaceutics. - Stuttgart
Publication
Stuttgart : 2013
ISSN
0939-6411
Volume/pages
85:3:B(2013), p. 984-995
ISI
000330200800019
Full text (Publisher's DOI)
Full text (publisher's version - intranet only)
UAntwerpen
Faculty/Department
Research group
Publication type
Subject
Affiliation
Publications with a UAntwerp address
External links
Web of Science
Record
Identification
Creation 07.03.2014
Last edited 24.11.2017
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