Title
Plague epizootic cycles in Central Asia Plague epizootic cycles in Central Asia
Author
Faculty/Department
Faculty of Sciences. Biology
Publication type
article
Publication
London ,
Subject
Chemistry
Biology
Human medicine
Source (journal)
Biology letters / Royal Society [London] - London
Volume/pages
10(2014) :6 , 4 p.
ISSN
1744-9561
1744-9561
Article Reference
20140302
Carrier
E-only publicatie
Target language
English (eng)
Full text (Publishers DOI)
Affiliation
University of Antwerp
Abstract
Infection thresholds, widely used in disease epidemiology, may operate on host abundance and, if present, on vector abundance. For wildlife populations, host and vector abundances often vary greatly across years and consequently the threshold may be crossed regularly, both up- and downward. Moreover, vector and host abundances may be interdependent, which may affect the infection dynamics. Theory predicts that if the relevant abundance, or combination of abundances, is above the threshold, then the infection is able to spread; if not, it is bound to fade out. In practice, though, the observed level of infection may depend more on past than on current abundances. Here, we study the temporal dynamics of plague (Yersinia pestis infection), its vector (flea) and its host (great gerbil) in the PreBalkhash region in Kazakhstan. We describe how host and vector abundances interact over time and how this interaction drives the dynamics of the system around the infection threshold, consequently affecting the proportion of plague-infected sectors. We also explore the importance of the interplay between biological and detectability delays in generating the observed dynamics.
Full text (open access)
https://repository.uantwerpen.be/docman/irua/1f64c4/12c28707.pdf
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