Development and external validation of prognostic model for 2-year survival of non-small-cell lung cancer patients treated with chemoradiotherapy

Dehing-Oberije, Cary; Yu, Shipeng; De Ruysscher, Dirk; van Meerbeeck, Jan; et al.

doi:10.1016/J.IJROBP.2008.08.052

Title

Development and external validation of prognostic model for 2-year survival of non-small-cell lung cancer patients treated with chemoradiotherapy

Author

Dehing-Oberije, Cary

Yu, Shipeng

De Ruysscher, Dirk

van Meerbeeck, Jan

et al.

Abstract

Purpose: Radiotherapy, combined with chemotherapy, is the treatment of choice for a large group of non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients. Recent developments in the treatment of these patients have led to improved survival. However, the clinical TNM stage is highly inaccurate for the prediction of survival, and alternatives are lacking. The objective of this study was to develop and validate a prediction model for survival of NSCLC patients, treated with chemoradiotherapy. Patients and Methods: The clinical data from 377 consecutive inoperable NSCLC patients, Stage I-IIIB, treated radically with chemoradiotherapy were collected. A prognostic model for 2-year survival was developed, using 2-norm support vector machines. The performance of the model was expressed as the area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic and assessed using leave-one-out cross-validation, as well as two external data sets. Results: The final multivariate model consisted of gender, World Health Organization performance status, forced expiratory volume in 1 s, number of positive lymph node stations, and gross tumor volume. The area under the curve, assessed by leave-one-out cross-validation, was 0.74, and application of the model to the external data sets yielded an area under the curve of 0.75 and 0.76. A high- and low-risk group could be clearly identified using a risk score based on the model. Conclusion: The multivariate model performed very well and was able to accurately predict the 2-year survival of NSCLC patients treated with chemoradiotherapy. The model could support clinicians in the treatment decision-making process. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc.

Language

English

Source (journal)

International journal of radiation oncology, biology, physics. - Bedford

Publication

Bedford : 2009

ISSN

0360-3016

DOI

10.1016/J.IJROBP.2008.08.052

Volume/pages

74 :2 (2009) , p. 355-362