Title
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Outcome prediction after mild and complicated mild traumatic brain injury : external validation of existing models and identification of new predictors using the TRACK-TBI pilot study
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Author
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Institution/Organisation
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TRACK-TBI Investigators
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Abstract
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Although the majority of patients with mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI) recover completely, some still suffer from disabling ailments at 3 or 6 months. We validated existing prognostic models for mTBI and explored predictors of poor outcome after mTBI. We selected patients with mTBI from TRACK-TBI Pilot, an unselected observational cohort of TBI patients from three centers in the United States. We validated two prognostic models for the Glasgow Outcome Scale Extended (GOS-E) at 6 months after injury. One model was based on the CRASH study data and another from Nijmegen, The Netherlands. Possible predictors of 3- and 6-month GOS-E were analyzed with univariate and multi-variable proportional odds regression models. Of the 386 of 485 patients included in the study (median age, 44 years; interquartile range, 27-58), 75% (n=290) presented with a Glasgow Coma Score (GCS) of 15. In this mTBI population, both previously developed models had a poor performance (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.49-0.56). In multivariable analyses, the strongest predictors of lower 3- and 6-month GOS-E were older age, pre-existing psychiatric conditions, and lower education. Injury caused by assault, extracranial injuries, and lower GCS were also predictive of lower GOS-E. Existing models for mTBI performed unsatisfactorily. Our study shows that, for mTBI, different predictors are relevant as for moderate and severe TBI. These include age, pre-existing psychiatric conditions, and lower education. Development of a valid prediction model for mTBI patients requires further research efforts. |
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Language
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English
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Source (journal)
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Journal of neurotrauma. - New York
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Publication
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New York
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2015
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ISSN
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1557-9042
[online]
0897-7151
[print]
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DOI
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10.1089/NEU.2014.3384
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Volume/pages
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32
:2
(2015)
, p. 83-94
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ISI
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000347690700002
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Full text (Publisher's DOI)
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Full text (open access)
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