Title
Declining global warming effects on the phenology of spring leaf unfolding Declining global warming effects on the phenology of spring leaf unfolding
Author
Faculty/Department
Faculty of Sciences. Biology
Publication type
article
Publication
London ,
Subject
Biology
Engineering sciences. Technology
Source (journal)
Nature. - London
Volume/pages
526(2015) :7571 , p. 104-+
ISSN
0028-0836
ISI
000362095100042
Carrier
E
Target language
English (eng)
Full text (Publishers DOI)
Affiliation
University of Antwerp
Abstract
Earlier spring leaf unfolding is a frequently observed response of plants to climate warming1, 2, 3, 4. Many deciduous tree species require chilling for dormancy release, and warming-related reductions in chilling may counteract the advance of leaf unfolding in response to warming5, 6. Empirical evidence for this, however, is limited to saplings or twigs in climate-controlled chambers7, 8. Using long-term in situ observations of leaf unfolding for seven dominant European tree species at 1,245 sites, here we show that the apparent response of leaf unfolding to climate warming (ST, expressed in days advance of leaf unfolding per °C warming) has significantly decreased from 1980 to 2013 in all monitored tree species. Averaged across all species and sites, ST decreased by 40% from 4.0 ± 1.8 days °C−1 during 19801994 to 2.3 ± 1.6 days °C−1 during 19992013. The declining ST was also simulated by chilling-based phenology models, albeit with a weaker decline (2430%) than observed in situ. The reduction in ST is likely to be partly attributable to reduced chilling. Nonetheless, other mechanisms may also have a role, such as photoperiod limitation mechanisms that may become ultimately limiting when leaf unfolding dates occur too early in the season. Our results provide empirical evidence for a declining ST, but also suggest that the predicted strong winter warming in the future may further reduce ST and therefore result in a slowdown in the advance of tree spring phenology.
Full text (open access)
https://repository.uantwerpen.be/docman/irua/b78db9/128989.pdf
E-info
https://repository.uantwerpen.be/docman/iruaauth/36cc8e/128989.pdf
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