Title
Estimating dynamic transmission model parameters for seasonal influenza by fitting to age and season-specific influenza-like illness incidence Estimating dynamic transmission model parameters for seasonal influenza by fitting to age and season-specific influenza-like illness incidence
Author
Faculty/Department
Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences
Publication type
article
Publication
Subject
Human medicine
Source (journal)
Epidemics
Volume/pages
13(2015) , p. 1-9
ISSN
1755-4365
ISI
000365890900001
Carrier
E
Target language
English (eng)
Full text (Publishers DOI)
Affiliation
University of Antwerp
Abstract
Dynamic transmission models are essential to design and evaluate control strategies for airborne infections. Our objective was to develop a dynamic transmission model for seasonal influenza allowing to evaluate the impact of vaccinating specific age groups on the incidence of infection, disease and mortality. Projections based on such models heavily rely on assumed Input' parameter values. In previous seasonal influenza models, these parameter values were commonly chosen ad hoc, ignoring between-season variability and without formal model validation or sensitivity analyses. We propose to directly estimate the parameters by fitting the model to age-specific influenza-like illness (ILI) incidence data over multiple influenza seasons. We used a weighted least squares (WLS) criterion to assess model fit and applied our method to Belgian ILI data over six influenza seasons. After exploring parameter importance using symbolic regression, we evaluated a set of candidate models of differing complexity according to the number of season-specific parameters. The transmission parameters (average R-0, seasonal amplitude and timing of the seasonal peak), waning rates and the scale factor used for WLS optimization, influenced the fit to the observed ILI incidence the most. Our results demonstrate the importance of between-season variability in influenza transmission and our estimates are in line with the classification of influenza seasons according to intensity and vaccine matching. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd
E-info
http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000365890900001&DestLinkType=RelatedRecords&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=ef845e08c439e550330acc77c7d2d848
http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000365890900001&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=ef845e08c439e550330acc77c7d2d848
http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000365890900001&DestLinkType=CitingArticles&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=ef845e08c439e550330acc77c7d2d848
Full text (open access)
https://repository.uantwerpen.be/docman/irua/38441f/130226.pdf
Handle