Urbanisation and youth employment in Tanzania : preliminary analysis in preparation of a full paper
Institute of Development Policy and Management
Proceedings of the Sixth International Conference on Agricultural Statistics (ICAS VI), Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística
University of Antwerp
In this preliminary scoping note, we use a regionally representative panel of around 2,000 rural African youth, originally surveyed 5 times as children and teens between 1991 and 2004 and one last time as 18-32 year old young adults in 2010. This is a very mobile demographic group and great effort was made to interview both those who remained in their home village as those who had moved out to other villages, towns or cities. For both migrant and non-migrant youth we have detailed data on occupation, schooling and living standards, giving a unique perspective on the interplay between internal migration and youth (un)employment. We find that those who migrate to cities are three times as likely to be employed and twice as likely to be self-employed outside of the agricultural sector. This translates into a consumption growth rate which is higher by a factor of 3, despite similar baseline welfare levels and after taking into account geographical differences in the cost of living. The flip side of the coin is that those who moved to cities are 10 times more likely to be unemployed than those who remain at home. More generally, those factors that are positively correlated with the likelihood of unemployment (for example, education and migration) are also positively correlated to wealth. We argue that this is consistent with the notion of migration and education as risky investments that require time to mature.