Title
Intervention time series analysis of crime rates : the case of sentence reform in Virginia Intervention time series analysis of crime rates : the case of sentence reform in Virginia
Author
Faculty/Department
Faculty of Applied Economics
Publication type
article
Publication
Guilford ,
Subject
Economics
Source (journal)
Economic modelling. - Guilford
Volume/pages
57(2016) , p. 311-323
ISSN
0264-9993
Carrier
E
Target language
English (eng)
Full text (Publishers DOI)
Affiliation
University of Antwerp
Abstract
We review the basic concepts of intervention analysis in the context of structural time series models and we apply this methodology to investigate the possible reduction in monthly crime rates reported from January 1984 up to and including December 2010 after Virginia abolished parole and reformed sentencing in January 1995. We find that the change in legislation has significantly reduced the burglary rates and to a lesser extent the murder rates in Virginia. The robustness of our results is investigated with an automatic detection of breaks procedure as well as with analyses of quarterly rather than monthly data.
E-info
https://repository.uantwerpen.be/docman/iruaauth/9f45ad/131875.pdf
Handle