Publication
Title
Prediction in a risk analysis context : implications for selecting a risk perspective in practical applications
Author
Abstract
Recently, there have been several calls for increased attention to foundational issues in risk analysis, addressing issues like terminology, principles and theories. An important foundational issue is the appropriateness of different concepts and perspectives for analyzing risk in practical applications. Several authors have addressed this through arguments involving, inter alia, the definition of risk, the ontology of risk, and the reliability and validity of risk analysis. This paper aims to contribute to this discussion by focusing on the concept of prediction. While this term is quite frequently used in risk analysis contexts, no earlier work has specifically focused on the issue of whether risk analyses can be considered to be predictive, and if so, in what sense. Neither has this been linked to the feasibility of risk perspectives. First, two definitions of what prediction can mean are elaborated, and criteria corresponding to these definitions are outlined to facilitate the subsequent discussion. A brief discussion on system types is included, as one type of prediction is defined through the relation between the model and the modeled system. Then, the definitions of prediction and the corresponding criteria are used to consider the appropriateness of two commonly used risk perspectives, namely the probability of frequency and the uncertainty perspective. In the former, a risk analysis aims at estimating an underlying true risk with quantified uncertainty bounds. In the latter, a risk analysis is a descriptive account of judgments and uncertainties by an assessor. It is finally argued that the uncertainty perspective generally is more appropriate than the probability of frequency perspective for practical risk analysis applications.
Language
English
Source (journal)
Safety science. - Amsterdam, 1991, currens
Safety science. - Amsterdam, 1991, currens
Publication
Amsterdam : 2018
ISSN
0925-7535
Volume/pages
101 (2018) , p. 344-351
ISI
000417009600032
Full text (Publisher's DOI)
Full text (open access)
Full text (publisher's version - intranet only)
UAntwerpen
Faculty/Department
Research group
Publication type
Subject
Affiliation
Publications with a UAntwerp address
External links
Web of Science
Record
Identification
Creation 25.10.2017
Last edited 14.11.2021
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