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Title
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A Markov chain approach to domino effects in chemical plants
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Author
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Abstract
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| We have introduced a methodology based on Markov chain for modeling domino effects in chemical plants. The graphical structure and modeling features offered by this chain make it possible to intuitively model the temporal and spatial escalation of domino effects. Accommodating conditional dependencies and complex interactions among the involved units, Markov chain can be used 1) to estimate the probability and duration of potential domino effects at different levels; 2) to identify the most probable sequence of events leading to a domino effect; and 3) to foresee whether a domino effect would terminate or escalate to the next level(s). The application of the methodology has been demonstrated via a hypothetical chemical storage plant. |
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Language
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English
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Source (journal)
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Journal of safety, health & environmental research
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Publication
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2017
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Volume/pages
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13
:2
(2017)
, p. 360-369
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Full text (publisher's version - intranet only)
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