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Title
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Is fertility a leading indicator for stock returns?
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Author
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Abstract
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| If fertility behavior is closely related to business cycle behavior, there should be evidence in financial markets. I document that a decrease in fertility growth negatively forecasts real excess returns, several months ahead. More interestingly, this effect is not yet captured by demographic, business cycle or confidence metrics. The relationship is robust in specific subsamples. Overall, this suggests that fertility growth is a leading indicator for recessions. |
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Language
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English
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Source (journal)
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Finance research letters. - Place of publication unknown
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Publication
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Place of publication unknown
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2020
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ISSN
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1544-6123
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DOI
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10.1016/J.FRL.2019.06.001
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Volume/pages
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33
(2020)
, p. 1-9
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Article Reference
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UNSP 101203
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ISI
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000536022000025
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Medium
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E-only publicatie
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Full text (Publisher's DOI)
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Full text (open access)
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Full text (publisher's version - intranet only)
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