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Title
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The impact of contact tracing and household bubbles on deconfinement strategies for COVID-19
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Author
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Abstract
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| The COVID-19 pandemic caused many governments to impose policies restricting social interactions. A controlled and persistent release of lockdown measures covers many potential strategies and is subject to extensive scenario analyses. Here, we use an individual-based model (STRIDE) to simulate interactions between 11 million inhabitants of Belgium at different levels including extended household settings, i.e., “household bubbles”. The burden of COVID-19 is impacted by both the intensity and frequency of physical contacts, and therefore, household bubbles have the potential to reduce hospital admissions by 90%. In addition, we find that it is crucial to complete contact tracing 4 days after symptom onset. Assumptions on the susceptibility of children affect the impact of school reopening, though we find that business and leisure-related social mixing patterns have more impact on COVID-19 associated disease burden. An optimal deployment of the mitigation policies under study require timely compliance to physical distancing, testing and self-isolation. |
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Language
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English
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Source (journal)
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Nature communications
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Related dataset(s)
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Publication
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2021
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ISSN
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2041-1723
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DOI
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10.1038/S41467-021-21747-7
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Volume/pages
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12
:1
(2021)
, p. 1-9
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Article Reference
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1524
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ISI
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000627829600010
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Pubmed ID
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33750778
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Medium
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E-only publicatie
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Full text (Publisher's DOI)
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Full text (open access)
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