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Title
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Estimating COVID-19-related excess mortality excluding seasonal phenomena in Belgium
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Author
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Abstract
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| Excess mortality, rather than reported COVID-19 deaths has been suggested to evaluate the impact of the SARS-CoV-2 induced Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19) pandemic on mortality. However, the relationship between excess mortality and COVID-19 mortality is perturbed by seasonal phenomena, such as extreme temperatures and seasonal influenza. Models used to estimate excess mortality often ignore these underlying patterns. We propose a dynamic linear state-space model to estimate all-cause mortality, which accounts for extreme temperatures above 25°C and seasonal influenza via the Goldstein index. The state-space model prediction of the excess mortality that is not explained by heat waves and seasonal influenza coincides with the reported COVID-19 mortality in the year 2020 in Belgium. |
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Language
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English
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Source (journal)
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Medical reserach archives
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Publication
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2022
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DOI
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10.18103/MRA.V10I9.3077
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Volume/pages
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10
:9
(2022)
, p. 1-12
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Full text (Publisher's DOI)
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Full text (open access)
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