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Title
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A bad break-up? Assessing the effects of the 2016 Brexit referendum on migration
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Author
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Abstract
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| By voting to leave the European Union (EU) in 2016, the United Kingdom (UK) set off a long period of uncertainty and signalled its support for the Leave campaigns, which centred around restricting migration. This paper researches how this decision affected EU-UK migration patterns. We exploit the Brexit referendum as a natural experiment and employ a (synthetic) difference-in-differences estimator to compare EU migration (treated) to non-EU migration (untreated) in the UK. We find a significant decrease in the inflow of EU migrants, although the reduction seems too small to have any impact on the migrant stock. We further find a significant persistent rise in British citizenship applications and grants. Our results reveal that the referendum made the UK a less attractive destination and that the EU migrants already in the UK were encouraged to obtain British citizenship. The Brexit-induced policy uncertainty was the key driver affecting migrants’ decision-making. |
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Language
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English
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Source (series)
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IZA discussion papers ; 16468
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Publication
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Bonn
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IZA – Institute of Labor Economics
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2023
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Volume/pages
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81 p.
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Full text (open access)
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