Publication
Title
A bad break-up? Assessing the effects of the 2016 Brexit referendum on migration
Author
Abstract
By voting to leave the European Union (EU) in 2016, the United Kingdom (UK) set off a long period of uncertainty and signalled its support for the Leave campaigns, which centred around restricting migration. This paper researches how this decision affected EU-UK migration patterns. We exploit the Brexit referendum as a natural experiment and employ a (synthetic) difference-in-differences estimator to compare EU migration (treated) to non-EU migration (untreated) in the UK. We find a significant decrease in the inflow of EU migrants, although the reduction seems too small to have any impact on the migrant stock. We further find a significant persistent rise in British citizenship applications and grants. Our results reveal that the referendum made the UK a less attractive destination and that the EU migrants already in the UK were encouraged to obtain British citizenship. The Brexit-induced policy uncertainty was the key driver affecting migrants’ decision-making.
Language
English
Source (series)
IZA discussion papers ; 16468
Publication
Bonn : IZA – Institute of Labor Economics , 2023
Volume/pages
81 p.
Full text (open access)
UAntwerpen
Faculty/Department
Research group
Publication type
Subject
Affiliation
Publications with a UAntwerp address
External links
Source file
Record
Identifier
Creation 22.09.2023
Last edited 23.09.2023
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