Publication
Title
Using machine learning to predict antibody response to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in solid organ transplant recipients : the multicentre ORCHESTRA cohort
Author
Institution/Organisation
Work Package 4 ORCHESTRA Study Gourp
Abstract
Objectives: The study aim was to assess predictors of negative antibody response (AbR) in solid organ transplant (SOT) recipients after the first booster of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination. Methods: Solid organ transplant recipients receiving SARS-CoV-2 vaccination were prospectively enrolled (March 2021-January 2022) at six hospitals in Italy and Spain. AbR was assessed at first dose (t(0)), second dose (t1), 3 +/- 1 month (t(2)), and 1 month after third dose (t(3)). Negative AbR at t3 was defined as an anti-receptor binding domain titre <45 BAU/mL. Machine learning models were developed to predict the individual risk of negative (vs. positive) AbR using age, type of transplant, time between transplant and vaccination, immunosuppressive drugs, type of vaccine, and graft function as covariates, subsequently assessed using a validation cohort. Results: Overall, 1615 SOT recipients (1072 [66.3%] males; mean age +/- standard deviation [SD], 57.85 +/- 13.77) were enrolled, and 1211 received three vaccination doses. Negative AbR rate decreased from 93.66% (886/946) to 21.90% (202/923) from t(0) to t(3). Univariate analysis showed that older patients (mean age, 60.21 +/- 11.51 vs. 58.11 +/- 13.08), anti-metabolites (57.9% vs. 35.1%), steroids (52.9% vs. 38.5%), recent transplantation (<3 years) (17.8% vs. 2.3%), and kidney, heart, or lung compared with liver transplantation (25%, 31.8%, 30.4% vs. 5.5%) had a higher likelihood of negative AbR. Machine learning (ML) algorithms showing best prediction performance were logistic regression (precision-recall curvePRAUC mean 0.37 [95%CI 0.36-0.39]) and k-Nearest Neighbours (PRAUC 0.36 [0.35-0.37]). Discussion: Almost a quarter of SOT recipients showed negative AbR after first booster dosage. Unfortunately, clinical information cannot efficiently predict negative AbR even with ML algorithms. Maddalena Giannella, Clin Microbiol Infect 2023;29:1084.e1-1084.e7 (c) 2023 Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases.
Language
English
Source (journal)
Clinical microbiology and infection / European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases. - Oxford
Publication
Oxford : 2023
ISSN
1198-743X [print]
1469-0691 [online]
DOI
10.1016/J.CMI.2023.04.027
Volume/pages
29 :8 (2023) , p. 1084e1-1084e7
ISI
001047636600001
Pubmed ID
37150358
Full text (Publisher's DOI)
Full text (publisher's version - intranet only)
UAntwerpen
Faculty/Department
Research group
Project info
Connecting European Cohorts to Increase Common and Effective Response to SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic (ORCHESTRA).
Connecting European Cohorts to Increase Common and Effective Response to SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic (ORCHESTRA).
Publication type
Subject
Affiliation
Publications with a UAntwerp address
External links
Web of Science
Record
Identifier
Creation 02.10.2023
Last edited 12.10.2023
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