Publication
Title
Characterizing the schooling cycle
Author
Abstract
This paper examines the cyclical dynamics of school participation decision, using data for 16-24-year-olds attending full-time post-compulsory education in the UK in the period from 1995Q1 to 2019Q4. We find evidence of a highly persistent education cycle, largely explained by the business cycle. Importantly, the response of school participation to the business cycle is time-dependent – counter-cyclical in the period around the Great Financial Crisis and pro-cyclical in other years. We propose two channels as predictors of the cyclicality of schooling – the ability-to-pay for further education and the opportunity-cost of spending time in education rather than at work. We also show that the results are heterogeneous by gender, with female choices being more responsive to changes in aggregate macroeconomic conditions than male choices. Timely policy interventions using regular education as a counter-cyclical tool can help prevent persistent or permanent unemployment in the aftermath of a crisis.
Language
English
Source (journal)
Economic modelling. - Guilford
Publication
Guilford : 2024
ISSN
0264-9993
DOI
10.1016/J.ECONMOD.2024.106649
Volume/pages
132 (2024)
Article Reference
106649
Full text (Publisher's DOI)
Full text (open access)
The author-created version that incorporates referee comments and is the accepted for publication version Available from 18.01.2025
UAntwerpen
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Publications with a UAntwerp address
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Creation 20.01.2024
Last edited 23.01.2024
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