Title
Estimating the impact of vaccination using age-time-dependent incidence rates of hepatitis B Estimating the impact of vaccination using age-time-dependent incidence rates of hepatitis B
Author
Faculty/Department
Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences
Publication type
article
Publication
London ,
Source (journal)
Epidemiology and infection. - London, 1987, currens
Volume/pages
136(2008) :3 , p. 341-351
ISSN
0950-2688
1469-4409
ISI
000259198300006
Carrier
E
Target language
English (eng)
Full text (Publishers DOI)
Affiliation
University of Antwerp
Abstract
The objective of this study was to model the age-time-dependent incidence of hepatitis B while estimating the impact of vaccination. While stochastic models/time-series have been used before to model hepatitis B cases in the absence of knowledge on the number of susceptibles, this paper proposed using a method that fits into the generalized additive model framework. Generalized additive models with penalized regression splines are used to exploit the underlying continuity of both age and time in a flexible non-parametric way. Based on a unique case notification dataset, we have shown that the implemented immunization programme in Bulgaria resulted in a significant decrease in incidence for infants in their first year of life with 82% (79-84%). Moreover, we have shown that conditional on an assumed baseline susceptibility percentage, a smooth force-of-infection profile can be obtained from which two local maxima were observed at ages 9 and 24 years.
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