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Title
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Estimating the impact of vaccination using age-time-dependent incidence rates of hepatitis B
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Author
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Abstract
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| The objective of this study was to model the age-time-dependent incidence of hepatitis B while estimating the impact of vaccination. While stochastic models/time-series have been used before to model hepatitis B cases in the absence of knowledge on the number of susceptibles, this paper proposed using a method that fits into the generalized additive model framework. Generalized additive models with penalized regression splines are used to exploit the underlying continuity of both age and time in a flexible non-parametric way. Based on a unique case notification dataset, we have shown that the implemented immunization programme in Bulgaria resulted in a significant decrease in incidence for infants in their first year of life with 82% (79-84%). Moreover, we have shown that conditional on an assumed baseline susceptibility percentage, a smooth force-of-infection profile can be obtained from which two local maxima were observed at ages 9 and 24 years. |
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Language
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English
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Source (journal)
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Epidemiology and infection. - London, 1987, currens
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Publication
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London
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2008
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ISSN
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0950-2688
[print]
1469-4409
[online]
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DOI
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10.1017/S0950268807008692
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Volume/pages
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136
:3
(2008)
, p. 341-351
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ISI
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000259198300006
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Full text (Publisher's DOI)
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