Title
Seventy-five years of estimating the force of infection from current status data Seventy-five years of estimating the force of infection from current status data
Author
Faculty/Department
Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences
Publication type
article
Publication
London ,
Subject
Human medicine
Source (journal)
Epidemiology and infection. - London, 1987, currens
Volume/pages
138(2010) :6 , p. 802-812
ISSN
0950-2688
1469-4409
ISI
000278177800002
Carrier
E
Target language
English (eng)
Full text (Publishers DOI)
Affiliation
University of Antwerp
Abstract
The force of infection, describing the rate at which a susceptible person acquires an infection, is a key parameter in models estimating the infectious disease burden, and the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of infectious disease prevention. Since Muench formulated the first catalytic model to estimate the force of infection from current status data in 1934, exactly 75 years ago, several authors addressed the estimation of this parameter by more advanced statistical methods, while applying these to seroprevalence and reported incidence/case notification data. In this paper we present an historical overview, discussing the relevance of Muench's work, and we explain the wide array of newer methods with illustrations on pre-vaccination serological survey data of two airborne infections: rubella and parvovirus B19. We also provide guidance on deciding which method(s) to apply to estimate the force of infection, given a particular set of data.
Full text (open access)
https://repository.uantwerpen.be/docman/irua/6b9e94/0a67d533.pdf
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