Title
Ranking malaria risk factors to guide malaria control efforts in African highlandsRanking malaria risk factors to guide malaria control efforts in African highlands
Author
Faculty/Department
Faculty of Pharmaceutical, Biomedical and Veterinary Sciences. Pharmacy
Research group
Epidemiology and social medicine (ESOC)
Laboratory for Microbiology, Parasitology and Hygiene (LMPH)
Publication type
article
Publication
Subject
Human medicine
Source (journal)
PLoS ONE
Volume/pages
4(2009):11, 10 p.
ISSN
1932-6203
ISI
000272827800014
Carrier
E-only publicatie
Target language
English (eng)
Full text (Publishers DOI)
Affiliation
University of Antwerp
Abstract
Introduction Malaria is re-emerging in most of the African highlands exposing the non immune population to deadly epidemics. A better understanding of the factors impacting transmission in the highlands is crucial to improve well targeted malaria control strategies. Methods and Findings A conceptual model of potential malaria risk factors in the highlands was built based on the available literature. Furthermore, the relative importance of these factors on malaria can be estimated through classification and regression trees, an unexploited statistical method in the malaria field. This CART method was used to analyse the malaria risk factors in the Burundi highlands. The results showed that Anopheles density was the best predictor for high malaria prevalence. Then lower rainfall, no vector control, higher minimum temperature and houses near breeding sites were associated by order of importance to higher Anopheles density. Conclusions In Burundi highlands monitoring Anopheles densities when rainfall is low may be able to predict epidemics. The conceptual model combined with the CART analysis is a decision support tool that could provide an important contribution toward the prevention and control of malaria by identifying major risk factors.
Full text (open access)
https://repository.uantwerpen.be/docman/irua/f18644/9c307933.pdf
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