Title
The predictive validity of peer review: a selective review of the judgmental forecasting qualities of peers, and implications for innovation in science The predictive validity of peer review: a selective review of the judgmental forecasting qualities of peers, and implications for innovation in science
Author
Faculty/Department
Administrative Services
Publication type
article
Publication
Amsterdam ,
Subject
Documentation and information
Source (journal)
International journal of forecasting. - Amsterdam
Volume/pages
27(2011) :1 , p. 166-182
ISSN
0169-2070
ISI
000286557800011
Carrier
E
Target language
English (eng)
Full text (Publishers DOI)
Affiliation
University of Antwerp
Abstract
In this review we investigate what the available data on the predictive validity of peer review can add to our understanding of judgmental forecasting. We found that peer review attests to the relative success of judgmental forecasting by experts. Both manuscript and group-based peer review allow, on average, for accurate decisions to be made. However, tension exists between peer review and innovative ideas, even though the latter underlie scientific advance. This points to the danger of biases and preconceptions in judgments. We therefore formulate two proposals for enhancing the likelihood of innovative work.
E-info
https://repository.uantwerpen.be/docman/iruaauth/e17d52/e039fbb24b3.pdf
Full text (open access)
https://repository.uantwerpen.be/docman/irua/f1da55/1151.pdf
E-info
http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000286557800011&DestLinkType=RelatedRecords&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=ef845e08c439e550330acc77c7d2d848
http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000286557800011&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=ef845e08c439e550330acc77c7d2d848
http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000286557800011&DestLinkType=CitingArticles&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=ef845e08c439e550330acc77c7d2d848
Handle