Publication
Title
The predictive validity of peer review: a selective review of the judgmental forecasting qualities of peers, and implications for innovation in science
Author
Abstract
In this review we investigate what the available data on the predictive validity of peer review can add to our understanding of judgmental forecasting. We found that peer review attests to the relative success of judgmental forecasting by experts. Both manuscript and group-based peer review allow, on average, for accurate decisions to be made. However, tension exists between peer review and innovative ideas, even though the latter underlie scientific advance. This points to the danger of biases and preconceptions in judgments. We therefore formulate two proposals for enhancing the likelihood of innovative work.
Language
English
Source (journal)
International journal of forecasting. - Amsterdam
Publication
Amsterdam : 2011
ISSN
0169-2070
Volume/pages
27:1(2011), p. 166-182
ISI
000286557800011
Full text (Publisher's DOI)
Full text (open access)
Full text (publisher's version - intranet only)
UAntwerpen
Faculty/Department
Research group
Publication type
Subject
Affiliation
Publications with a UAntwerp address
External links
Web of Science
Record
Identification
Creation 20.05.2010
Last edited 20.06.2017
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