Publication
Title
Modelling forces of infection by using monotone local polynomials
Author
Abstract
On the basis of serological data from prevalence studies of rubella, mumps and hepatitis A, the paper describes a flexible local maximum likelihood method for the estimation of the rate at which susceptible individuals acquire infection at different ages. In contrast with parametric models that have been used before in the literature, the local polynomial likelihood method allows this age-dependent force of infection to be modelled without making any assumptions about the parametric structure. Moreover, this method allows for simultaneous nonparametric estimation of age-specific incidence and prevalence. Unconstrained models may lead to negative estimates for the force of infection at certain ages. To overcome this problem and to guarantee maximal flexibility, the local smoother can be constrained to be monotone. It turns out that different parametric and nonparametric estimates of the force of infection can exhibit considerably different qualitative features like location and the number of maxima, emphasizing the importance of a well-chosen flexible statistical model.
Language
English
Source (journal)
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: series C: applied statistics. - London
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: series C: applied statistics. - London
Publication
London : 2003
ISSN
0035-9254
Volume/pages
52:4(2003), p. 469-485
ISI
000186031800007
Full text (Publishers DOI)
Full text (publishers version - intranet only)
UAntwerpen
Faculty/Department
Research group
Publication type
Subject
Affiliation
Publications with a UAntwerp address
External links
Web of Science
Record
Identification
Creation 14.07.2010
Last edited 07.04.2017
To cite this reference