Title
Accounting for methodological, structural, and parameter uncertainty in decision-analytic models : a practical guideAccounting for methodological, structural, and parameter uncertainty in decision-analytic models : a practical guide
Author
Faculty/Department
Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences
Research group
Vaccine & Infectious Disease Institute (VAXINFECTIO)
Publication type
article
Publication
Philadelphia, Pa,
Subject
Human medicine
Source (journal)
Medical decision making. - Philadelphia, Pa
Volume/pages
31(2011):4, p. 675-692
ISSN
0272-989X
ISI
000292732800016
Carrier
E
Target language
English (eng)
Full text (Publishers DOI)
Affiliation
University of Antwerp
Abstract
Accounting for uncertainty is now a standard part of decision-analytic modeling and is recommended by many health technology agencies and published guidelines. However, the scope of such analyses is often limited, even though techniques have been developed for presenting the effects of methodological, structural, and parameter uncertainty on model results. To help bring these techniques into mainstream use, the authors present a step-by-step guide that offers an integrated approach to account for different kinds of uncertainty in the same model, along with a checklist for assessing the way in which uncertainty has been incorporated. The guide also addresses special situations such as when a source of uncertainty is difficult to parameterize, resources are limited for an ideal exploration of uncertainty, or evidence to inform the model is not available or not reliable. Methods for identifying the sources of uncertainty that influence results most are also described. Besides guiding analysts, the guide and checklist may be useful to decision makers who need to assess how well uncertainty has been accounted for in a decision-analytic model before using the results to make a decision.
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