Publication
Title
Risk assessment of the maintenance process for onshore oil and gas transmission pipelines under uncertainty
Author
Abstract
Research on risk assessment of the maintenance process for onshore oil and gas transmission pipelines has been attracting ever more attention from the academic community. Due to the existence of uncertainties, risk propagation can hardly be precisely and/or robustly assessed. Therefore, in this paper, considering that decision-makers prefer uncertainty-informed risk information rather than unreliable precise risk values, a new insight is provided to deal with risk assessment of the onshore pipeline maintenance process under uncertainty. The risk assessment model is built on the framework of quantitative risk assessment based on AHP and expert knowledge. Meanwhile, to represent and quantify uncertainty, interval analysis is utilized to extend the whole model into an interval environment. As a result, an interval quantified risk assessment model is established for the onshore pipeline maintenance process. The study shows that interval analysis can effectively internalize, represent, quantify and propagate the uncertainty in the risk assessment model. In the specific case of emergency maintenance for the Gangqing dual pipeline, the interval scores to respectively characterize the occurrence likelihood and consequence severity are computed. As a result, the uncertainty-informed overall risk of the emergency maintenance process is determined and intuitively pinpointed in an interval risk matrix. The risk rating of the case is estimated as Level 2, indicating that operations with respect to emergency maintenance are well organized and the possibility of accident occurrence is low. Thus, maintenance can be carried out well under supervision. Even if a secondary accident would occur, the accident scope will be quite small and emergency measures are adequate enough to control the development of the accident and reduce accident losses.
Language
English
Source (journal)
Reliability engineering and system safety. - Barking
Publication
Barking : 2018
ISSN
0951-8320
Volume/pages
177 (2018) , p. 50-67
ISI
000437961000005
Full text (Publisher's DOI)
Full text (open access)
Full text (publisher's version - intranet only)
UAntwerpen
Faculty/Department
Research group
Publication type
Subject
Affiliation
Publications with a UAntwerp address
External links
Web of Science
Record
Identification
Creation 21.06.2018
Last edited 14.09.2021
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