Publication
Title
Microclimate reveals the true thermal niche of forest plant species
Author
Abstract
Species distributions are conventionally modelled using coarse-grained macroclimate data measured in open areas, potentially leading to biased predictions since most terrestrial species reside in the shade of trees. For forest plant species across Europe, we compared conventional macroclimate-based species distribution models (SDMs) with models corrected for forest microclimate buffering. We show that microclimate-based SDMs at high spatial resolution outperformed models using macroclimate and microclimate data at coarser resolution. Additionally, macroclimate-based models introduced a systematic bias in modelled species response curves, which could result in erroneous range shift predictions. Critically important for conservation science, these models were unable to identify warm and cold refugia at the range edges of species distributions. Our study emphasizes the crucial role of microclimate data when SDMs are used to gain insights into biodiversity conservation in the face of climate change, particularly given the growing policy and management focus on the conservation of refugia worldwide. Species distributions are conventionally modelled using coarse-grained macroclimate data measured in open areas, potentially leading to biased predictions since most terrestrial species on Earth reside in the shade of trees. Here, we compared conventional macroclimate-based species distribution models (SDMs) with models corrected for forest microclimate buffering, at both coarse and high spatial resolution, for forest plant species across Europe.image
Language
English
Source (journal)
Ecology letters. - Oxford, 1998, currens
Publication
Hoboken : Wiley , 2023
ISSN
1461-023X [print]
1461-0248 [online]
DOI
10.1111/ELE.14312
Volume/pages
26 :12 (2023) , p. 2043-2055
ISI
001076721700001
Pubmed ID
37788337
Full text (Publisher's DOI)
Full text (open access)
The author-created version that incorporates referee comments and is the accepted for publication version Available from 03.04.2024
Full text (publisher's version - intranet only)
UAntwerpen
Faculty/Department
Research group
Publication type
Subject
Affiliation
Publications with a UAntwerp address
External links
Web of Science
Record
Identifier
Creation 30.10.2023
Last edited 28.12.2023
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